A pesar del mal ambiente que reinaba en el equipo, Dinamarca ganó los cinco partidos restantes de la fase de grupos, camiseta psg gris entre ellos un triunfo por 2-1 contra los yugoslavos en Belgrado. Tras no lograr el pase a la Eurocopa de fútbol 1996, Noruega clasificó cómodamente para el Mundial 98. En dicho certamen, Noruega empató 2-2 con Marruecos y 1-1 con Escocia, pero luego vendría la mayor hazaña del fútbol noruego en su historia: logró un triunfo histórico por 2-1 ante Brasil con goles de Flo y Kjetil Rekdal. La Federación Costarricense de Fútbol o FCRF, anteriormente conocida como FEDEFUTBOL, es el ente rector del fútbol en Costa Rica, con sede en San Rafael de Alajuela. Se estableció su sede fija en El Cairo. Some people argue, and I am part of it, that xG usually gives a better indicator of the performance of a team than the raw, absolute final result. But let’s consider in this post that xG is an interesting indicator as is final result. Expected points may provide other insights for some leagues and seasons (eg xPoints for Ligue 1 are comparatively more stable than actual gained points), but confirm the observations.
Though there are some fluctuations across seasons for actual points (eg Ligue 1 in 2015 vs 2016), there is a clear positive effect of playing home in all leagues. Specifically, football matches have been played in empty stadiums in COVID era; generally speaking, conditions have changed (training conditions, mental health, etc.) It’s an unique opportunity to investigate whether the COVID has had an effect on home advantage; and to compare this COVID situation to traditional seasons. In COVID era, football matches have been played in empty stadiums and unusual conditions. It corresponds to the COVID period where stadiums were empty. In 2020, a surprising reversal occurred in Ligue 1 and Premier League: more points were scored away than at home! Serie A and Liga were apparently less impacted. The site reports such metrics for all football matches played since 2014 and in major European leagues, namely Ligue 1 (aka french championship), la Liga, Calcio (Serie A), Bundesliga, EPL (aka Premier League), RFPL (aka russian championship).
In this post, I analyze matches’ results and expected goals (xG)-like data of European leagues (Ligue 1, la Liga, Calcio, Bundesliga, Premier League, Russian championship) since 2014. Results show something happened, especially in Premier League and Ligue 1 for season 2020-2021. I argue there is thus a unique opportunity to qualitatively analyze the COVID period (potentially with data obtained from computer analysis) in order to understand the new tactical or management approaches implemented. I use the data coming from understat. GA is the counterpart of xG: It is a statistical measure of the quality of chances conceded. G is a statistical measure of the quality of chances created. The same trend can be observed for expected points (xPoints). Points are an estimate of how many points a team can get given its xG and xGA (recall: 3 points for a win, 1 point for a draw). For sure, we can debate about xG for hours or days (it does not say everything about the match, the metric itself is sensitive to the quality of annotations, etc.). What is worth noticing is this sudden drop in 2020 or in 2019 for some leagues (Bundesliga, Russia). Looking at actual points, in Russia championship and in 2019, there was also this effect.
Of course, it’s a metric and there is Messi: it’s far from being perfect, but it is a good approximation of the quality of a team. It’s certainly true (we will verify it soon, see below) and there are several conceivable reasons why. In case it is you have reasons to have endless debate about why. In case not, you can also have endless debates. Intuitively, you have higher chance to score when you shot from 6 meters, in the axis than when you shot from 35 meters and you’re off-center. A long-standing hypothesis in football is that playing at home gives you an advantage. One hypothesis is that COVID may have questioned the way the game is played and especially the advantage of playing at home (e.g., due to the absence of fans). G is particularly interesting when numerous matches are analyzed – the miracles do not persist much on the long run. We all know football matches where a team won despite 1 chance created and 10 chances conceded.
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